Fermi Estimation & Forecasting with Squiggle

Interested in fermi estimates, back of the envelope calculations (BOTECs) or Monte Carlo models? Curious how to apply these on topics relating to AI safety or bio safety, or other global catastrophic risks? Squiggle is a new open-source tool that makes probabilistic estimation (relatively) easy. It can be a good starting point for people curious about these topics - or it can be an advanced tool for those who are ambitious about modeling. In this relaxed workshop, we'll go over Squiggle and how to make models. We'll spend some time going over the basics, then people will get to try out making their own models. We'll also go over Squiggle AI - a new tool that uses LLMs to make estimates using Squiggle. Please bring a laptop. There is no software that needs to be installed - everything runs in the browser. This workshop will not be recorded. This event is organized by Ozzie Gooen, founder of the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). QURI is the creator of tools including Guesstimate and Squiggle. We'll have a mix of vegan and vegetarian pizzas for dinner. This event is hosted at Kalorama House. If you'd like to read up on QURI or Squiggle beforehand, here are some relevant links: https://quantifieduncertainty.org/ https://www.squiggle-language.com/ https://squigglehub.org/