Manifold Election Day Watch Party

Manifold is hosting an all-day election forecasting extravaganza! Come hang out with your fellow political prognosticators and watch the election probabilities update in real time... This event is free and open to all Manifold users (sign up in <60 seconds at https://manifold.markets). Entrance code is 2048. LINEUP 2:30 pm - 1 am: Election returns watch party Streaming all day from multiple locations across the venue. 3 pm: Election Past-casting Jacob Cohen (Conflux), Manifold's newsletter writer and lifelong election aficianado, will regale audiences with the tale of a randomly selected election in US history — with names and details anonymized. This will allow the audience to hone their election forecasting skills and bet on the twists and turns of this election! 4:00 pm: Election trivia / estimathon A casual competition on your knowledge of current events, political history, and/or Manifold probabilities! The winner will get a prize. 4:30 pm: Prediction Markets and the Dilemma of Donald Trump with Pratik Chougule Explore tension of how Trump is the friendliest president and major party candidate in modern history toward prediction markets, but also his embrace of a style that is anathema to the values of the forecasting community. 5 pm - 10 pm: Key election returns PLUS - Physical election needles with live-updating odds! (main building) - Trading Floor (Bayes Ground): a place for dedicated election bettors to chat - Politics-free discussion zone (Bayes Attic) - Lightning talks at 9 pm (Gyroscope): Give a 2-minute rapid-fire talk on any topic of your choice! - Pizza, refreshments