DC Forecasting & Prediction Markets Meetup (Jun 25)

Wednesday, June 25

6:00pm – 9:00pm

ETGMT

Hosted by Forecasting Meetup Network

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UPDATE: our guest speaker this month is Robin Hanson. Robin Hanson is an Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University, known for his pioneering work in prediction markets, also referred to as information markets or idea futures, since 1988. He has been instrumental in the design and implementation of various prediction markets, including the first internal corporate market at Xanadu in 1990, the Foresight Exchange (since 1994), DARPA's Policy Analysis Market (2001-2003), and IARPA's DAGGRE and SCICAST (2010-2015). Hanson has extensively written and spoken on the applications of prediction markets to business and policy, proposing a form of governance called "futarchy" based on their use. His research often challenges conventional wisdom, exploring topics like hidden motives in everyday life (co-authored "The Elephant in the Brain") and forecasting the societal implications of disruptive technologies such as brain emulations in "The Age of Em." Through his widely read blog, OvercomingBias.com, and numerous academic publications and invited talks, Robin Hanson offers unique perspectives that resonate with prediction market traders, effective altruists, and rationalists interested in improving forecasting, understanding human behavior, and shaping a more informed future. -- This month's meetup is sponsored by Manifold, the world's largest social prediction market. Create an account and predict how many people will attend this month's meetup at https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-people-will-attend-the-jun?r=ZGdsaWQ. Thanks to Manifold's sponsorship, a BBQ buffet and fountain drinks will be provided free of charge to this month's attendees. While food and drink is not unlimited, there should be plenty for the first ~25 attendees at least, which nears our max historical attendance. Alcoholic beverages will be available for purchase. -- Join us for our monthly DC Forecasting & Prediction Markets meetup, a very casual meetup to meet and socialize with others interested in forecasting, prediction markets, political gambling, sports betting, or anything else relating to predicting the future. We’re returning to Rocklands BBQ in Arlington a few blocks from the Virginia Sq-GMU metrorail stop on the Orange/Silver line. Free parking also available. We’ll be in the private space upstairs; head to the back of the restaurant, and up the stairs on your left. Open to all ages. Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed! Who are we? We are prediction market traders on Manifold (and other prediction markets like PredictIt, Kalshi, and Polymarket), forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander’s Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, and data scientists. Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend meetups this year: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-attendees-will-there-be-at?play=true This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

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