EA Austin Forecasting Workshop

Bring your laptop. This workshop is hands-on! ChatGPT rewrote my event description, and I endorse it: Come join EA Austin for our December Forecasting Workshop and learn how to forecast like a pro! This event will provide you with the skills and knowledge you need to make accurate predictions on the questions you care about. You'll be guided through the fundamentals of forecasting by Will, who has won multiple forecasting tournaments and consistently finishes in the top 3% of participants. He'll be teaching you everything you need to know from Philip Tetlock's book “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction," as well as how to operationalize questions, score forecasts, and measure your progress. After a brief introduction, you'll have the opportunity to practice forecasting with others on a shared set of questions using INFER and Metaculus. You'll learn how to write rationales and practice reasoning transparency, ensuring that you're making the most accurate predictions possible. Once you've had the chance to practice your new skills, you'll regroup to share your lessons learned and any remaining questions you have about forecasting. You'll also have the opportunity to make your own forecasts on questions you're interested in, including prediction market questions on Manifold Markets. If you're interested in making your own questions, Will is happy to help you operationalize them. The workshop will conclude at 5:00pm, but if there's enough interest, we may provide dinner and continue the event for those who wish to stay longer. Let us know if you're interested or we can play it by ear! Don't miss out on this amazing opportunity to learn how to forecast like a pro – register now!